Friday 22 April marks Earth Day, and 2016’s is set to be something of a landmark as world leaders meet at the UN to begin the formal signing process of the Paris Climate Agreement.
The terms of the agreement were set in December last year, following weeks of discussion at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, more often known by its more palatable acronym COP21 (for 21st Conference of Parties).
The agreement involves a draft of proposals designed to bring global warming down to a target threshold of 2C by 2100. This is an optimistic target – according to current estimates, even if the terms of the Paris agreement are upheld, warming will be at 2.7C by 2100. However, according to the same estimates, without any action, it will reach 4.5C, and so the importance of this agreement is not to be understated.
155 Countries
Today is the first day that representatives of the countries involved can actually sign the agreement.
Last week, a spokesman for the UN Secretary General said: “The number of countries that have indicated their intention to attend and sign the Paris Agreement on 22 April is now up to 155”.
This turnout, and the event itself, is described by the Secretary General of the UN’s Climate Change Support Team, Selwin Hart, as “a good sign that political commitment remains strong and countries are committed to ensure that this agreement enters into force as soon as possible.”
The actual signing process is expected to take up to a year, since the extent of the terms and the legal requirements involved mean that action plans must be set out and, in some cases, relatively lengthy internal political processes must be followed before agreement can be officially ratified. Some countries, Switzerland for example, have already set out plans and are ready to fully sign up today.
In some others, the ratification process will be fairly straightforward. In the US, for example, all that is required for the agreement to be formally accepted is for the President to assent to the terms.
In others, it is a longer and more drawn out process. In developing countries like India, for example, some relatively drastic infrastructure changes will be necessary if the targets set are to be met; this may require some change to domestic laws.
And even closer to home, the European Union is likely to be relatively slow on the uptake. There is disagreement among the 28 member states over exactly what action should be taken, as well has on how the responsibility for emissions reduction should be divided up. A general plan must be agreed, and each individual country must formally ratify the agreement; this is expected to be a fairly long process.
At the event at UN headquarters today, those that are ready to formally sign will do so; others will set out their proposed action plans in detail and begin the requisite domestic legal processes.
55/55 Threshold
The Paris Agreement formally becomes active 30 days after the ‘55/55’ threshold is reached. This happens when 55 countries representing at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions are all formally on board.
Given that the ten largest emitting countries are responsible for more than 70% of global emissions, this will require the assent of a few big players at the very least.
Because of this requirement, many smaller and developing countries are pushing to ratify the deal as soon as possible since, if it goes ahead without them having done so, they will miss out on the chance to actually influence the terms.
Reid Detchon, of the United Nations Foundation said: “There was a little buzz a few weeks back with someone suggesting that some of the smaller countries should refrain from signing in order to get a better deal.
“The fact that there is this large number of developing countries that are coming to the table says that argument hasn’t really taken root and they really saw how deeply their own national self interest was bound up in success here.”
Given the 55/55 threshold, larger countries like the US and China, who together contribute 36% of the world’s carbon emissions, have the opportunity to push the treaty forward sooner.
In the case of the US, this is likely to be quite an important factor. If President Barack Obama can make sure that the treaty becomes fully operational before he leaves office, then his successor must wait at least four years before they can back out.
Time is of the Essence
Beyond the need to avoid political dissent in the US though, time is certainly of the essence if the targets set out in the agreement are actually to be achievable.
Mr Detchon said: “My biggest concern really is that we are only on the first step of a ladder of increased ambition. It is going to become clear to the world over the next 3-5 years how much more we need to do to stabilise the climate.”
There are some who are taking a fairly cynical attitude towards proceedings, with the International Alliance of Frontline Communities describing the whole Paris Agreement as nothing more than a “dangerous distraction”.
It is almost always going to be the case with an agreement like this that more can be done than is being done, but it is important not to underestimate the importance of such a unanimous effort among so many countries with diverse national interests.
Indeed the event today represents the largest number of countries to ever come together to sign a single agreement in UN history. The previous record was set in 1982, when 119 countries joined together to sign the Law of the Sea in Montego Bay.
The targets set are optimistic, and it is likely that the 2C target will still be exceeded, but what is absolutely clear is that progress is being made on a hugely important issue, in a manner previously thought impossible.
As Christiana Figueres, UN Climate Chief, said earlier this year in a TED talk in Vancouver: “impossible isn’t a fact; it’s an attitude”.
