Two separate studies have suggested that the ratification threshold that must be met for the Paris climate agreement to come into force is due to be reached by the end of 2016.
The Paris agreement, representing a global combined effort in the fight against climate change, will officially come into force 30 days after the 55/55 threshold is met. The threshold is met when at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions officially ratify the agreement.
As of the beginning of August this year, 22 countries representing 1.09% of emissions have formally ratified the agreement. However, two separate analyses, one from Climate Analytics and one from the government of the Marshall Islands, suggest that if all countries who have pledged to ratify this year make good on their promises, then the agreement will come into force by the end of 2016, or early 2017 at the latest.
According to Climate Analytics, further to the 22 who have already ratified, 33 more, representing another 54.98% of emissions are projected to ratify this year, bringing the total to 55 countries and 56.07% of global emissions.
Among this 33 are the world’s two largest emitters, China and the USA, who collectively account for nearly 38% of the world’s GHG emissions, according to Climate Analytics’ figures.
China’s vice premier, Zhang Gaoli, said in a statement earlier this year: “We will make early accession to the Paris Agreement. China will finalize domestic legal procedures on its accession before the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September this year. We have asked other G20 members and we work with the rest of the international community for early accession to the agreement and ensure its early entry into force.”
The USA’s statements have been slightly more vague, but Secretary of State John Kerry has said: “The United States looks forward to formally joining this Agreement this year and we call upon all our international partners to do so.”
Climate Analytics has not included India’s ratification in their projections due to the vagueness of a joint statement released by them and the US which went no further than “recogniz[ing] the urgency of climate change and shar[ing] a goal of enabling entry into the Paris Agreement as early as possible” with India having “begun processes tow work toward this shared objective”.
However, they said, with India representing 4.1% of global emissions, their ratification would certainly work towards fast tracking the Agreements coming into force.
The analysis from the Marshall Islands’ government differs slightly from Climate Analytics’, due to different sources for information. They project that 58 countries, representing 54% of emissions are due to ratify this year.
Marshall Islands’ president, Hilda Heine, said: What we agreed in Paris at the end of last year will likely now have the force of the law by the end of this year. This is a big recognition of the urgency with which we must now get on with the job.”
