Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US Presidential election has had environmental campaigners vocally concerned about the future of global efforts to slow climate change.
Trump been known for his scepticism regarding climate change, having referred to it as a “hoax” online, and having vowed back in May to “cancel the Paris climate Agreement” were he to win the election. With his victory now secured, we will have to wait and see if he intends to make good on this promise.
Now that the Paris Agreement has officially come into force, backing out of it will be no mean feat and will take some time. As French environment minister Ségolène Royale, explained: “The Paris agreement prohibits any exit for a period of three years, plus a year-long notice period, so there will be four stable years.”
Nonetheless, she insisted that all other nations must remain “extremely attentive” and respond quickly and effectively to any attempt by any nation to back out of the treaty.
Aside what from appears to be a basic denial of the science in his referring to climate change as a ‘hoax’, a large part of Trump’s lack of willingness to make any effort in fighting global warming comes from his ‘business-first’ perspective.
Late last year, as his campaign was just taking off, Trump spoke to Fox News host Chris Wallace, condemning the Environmental Protection Agency as a “disgrace” and saying that he intended to get rid of it. When asked who would then protect the environment once it was gone, Trump said – “we’ll be fine with the environment. We can leave a little but, but you can’t destroy businesses”.
This prioritising of business needs and employment over environmental concerns has been characteristic of his opinions on the subject, and feeds into his strong support for the US coal industry. Trump pledged to expand the coal industry, as well as the oil and gas industries, with the ostensible aim of creating and maintaining more jobs for the American people.
While it has so far been difficult to distinguish what Trump has said with genuine intention and what with largely rhetorical purpose, one fact that should figure as something of a glimmer of hope among environmentalists is the rapid growth of the renewables industries.
Accelerating development of renewable technology means ever increasing numbers of generating facilities and therefore more and more jobs being created.
Trump will have spoken about the importance of US jobs in there coal industry in areas where there are a high concentration of workers in the coal industry, but if his true intention is to boost American business and employment, renewables are, by most current forecasts, a safe bet going forwards.
Maldives energy minister Thoriq Ibrahim explained: “Last month, for the first time, renewables like wind and solar surpassed fossil fuels in new electricity generation globally and that number is expected to climb. America has led this technological transformation and can continue to create jobs and opportunity in this area.”
However, few are confident that this path is likely to be the one Trump takes, given his overarching climate scepticism. Researchers at HSBC said that they were concerned about Trumps apparent aims to row back on much of the progress Obama has made towards decarbonisation, including his intention to scrap the Clean Power Plan.
They said: “We expect Trump’s policies to put at risk the decarbonisation and clean energy uptake seen during President Obama’s time in office, with potential to slow both the US energy system transition and domestic measures to mitigate climate change.”
However, while pessimism has been widespread, Friends of the Earth’s CEO Craig Bennett said that he believes that the ball is already rolling too fast in the right direction for Trump to stop it. All that would happen, he said, is that American would hand the reigns over to other countries.
“The election of President Trump is clearly a major threat to our climate and future wellbeing of generations to come. But thankfully the clean energy revolution is now unstoppable. If Mr Trump chooses to disengage then he will hand the next industrial revolution lock, stock and barrel to the Chinese,” Bennett said.
